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The average is 1 in 50. It’s a chance, not a guarantee. Some people will get a candy horse after 10 creates and some will get one after 100+ creates. That’s just how probabilities work :)

yeah just bad luck. Although it's also possible that depending on the times you're doing it you're running into the one a day limit I'm not entirely sure when that rolls over, midnight I think.

It certainly feels like a random chance with 1 in 50 odds of any given horse becoming candy coated. It's not a guarantee you will hit a candy horse in 50. I've been consistently getting candy horses but I make ~200-250 horses every other day to breed and churn through the auctions. Today I hit a candy horse around my 180th horse created.

@Ambervalleyarabians I think the counter Ammit has mentioned refers to the one-per-day limit. When the counter hits 1 you have zero chance of creating another candy pony until it resets the next day. It's not a counter that ensures your next horse is a candy pony after 49 creates. 1/50 is just the probability of creating a candy pony each time you create a horse.