HGG Community Forums

my odds seem to change by the day. Yesterday i went through all my possible creates and got 3, while today, i got 8 (and haven't exhausted my 250 creates yet)

I am not a gambler, this is as close to gambling I have ever gotten (come on, let this be the one, let this, let this, let this..
mantra in my head, "this will be the last one, this will be the last one" I finally have an inkling what must be going in in the heads of people running one armed bandits.

I normally am getting 5-10 a day, but I’ve missed a few days

I've been getting very few, yesterday was extremely low. But I know it says bigger barns have lower odds so I assume that's why.

Interesting people are making more than 5; perhaps I am misinterpreting the meaning of "luck runs out" and instead of meaning no more sea ponies for that day, it means lower odds

I think "luck runs out" means the odds go from the "beginner's luck" odds for smaller barns back down to the 1/30 odds once you've gotten five seaponies for the event. I was confused in the past and thought it meant you could make no more than five per day, but that's not so because I've made as many as eleven in one day, but I've also made as few as three. I always do the full 250 creates and I think eight seaponies per day would be the average then at 1/30 odds.

Is it? Aren't our odds individual odds, not affected by other players' creates? I don't think a seapony goes out to someone only after players have collectively created 29 horses. I also did play around with creating at different times of day, I thought maybe if I make my creates early before a lot of seaponies have gone out already I'd get more. But it didn't make any difference.

But 1/30 is just the odds during each create, it's not a guarantee. Just like the odds of flipping heads with a coin is 1/2, it doesn't mean the coin must land on heads exactly half the time. That's just the probability each time.

The 1/30 odds are per each horse, not per player and it's not a "set" 1/30.

So what that means is that for each horse created, it has a 1/30 chance of being a sea pony. A previous horse being a sea pony (or not being a sea pony) does not affect this probability (meaning that there isn't some type of internal "counter" making literally every 30th horse created a sea pony... it's more like a dice roll with each horse).

It may help to imagine a standard 6-sided die. For the sake of making this simple, let's say that the number "1" wins you a dollar. You roll the die, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 1 (because your possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). Now let's say on your first roll, the die shows a 3 - you don't win the dollar. Now you roll again, and you still have the same 6 possible outcomes, so you again have a 1/6 chance of rolling that 1. Now you get a 6. Dang it, still not that 1 you needed!

It's possible (note: not probable) that you could roll the 6-sided die 100 times in a row and never get a 1, because the previous outcomes of each die roll don't affect the individual probability of the next roll - it's always 1/6 for each roll no matter what. It's also possible that you roll the die 20 times and get a 1 on 15 of those 20 occasions, for the same reason explained above.

Creation of the sea ponies is the same, except you're essentially rolling a 30-sided die where you win a sea pony only when the die lands on 1, giving you 1/30 odds each time you create a horse. You could create 25 sea ponies in a row, or you could create 250 horses in a row and get none. However, your average will likely end up being in the general vicinity of 1/30.

Lots of confusion about how random numbers work in this thread. Biological explained it perfectly.

Every time you make a create the game pulls a random number between 1 and 30. If it gets a 1 you get a sea pony. Any other numbers are normal. Just because you had bad luck one day and good luck another day does not mean the odds are changing. Just because someone else has better luck than you does not mean much of anything either. Creating when other people are on or not on also has zero impact on your random number pull.

On average you can make 8.3 sea ponies a day. 8.3 x 15 days is 125. Mensie does not even have better than normal luck. Only pure average luck. So no one is averaging more than the 1/30 odds listed.